The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in November, remaining at 124.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in October, and a 0.3 percent increase in September.
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index continued on an upward trend through 2016, although at a moderate pace of growth,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The underlying trends in the LEI suggest that the economy will continue expanding into the first half of 2017, but it’s unlikely to considerably accelerate. Although the industrial and construction indicators held the U.S. LEI back in November, the weakness was offset by improvements in the interest rate spread, initial unemployment insurance claims, and stock prices.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in November to 114.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent increase in September. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in November to 123.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.2 percent increase in September.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.